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Compare the portfolio variants

Each run on Goals builds six portfolios from your strategy pool, each chosen a different way. Variants puts them side by side so you can pick the one that suits you and make it your live portfolio.

Plan: every plan. Comparing and deploying variants does not use a Portfolio Builder run.

Compare the six cards

  1. Click Portfolio in the left rail, then Variants. The app also opens it when a run on Goals finishes.
  2. Read the cards. Each shows the portfolio's average Monthly return, its Max DD (the largest fall from a peak), its RDD (return divided by max drawdown: higher is better) and how many EAs it holds.
  3. Click a card to select it. The charts and tables below switch to that portfolio.

What each portfolio aims for:

  • AI Portfolio (Pro): picked by the AI within your goals. Without AI it is the Fallback Portfolio, built with the standard rules.
  • Lowest-DD: the lowest combined drawdown; stops adding strategies at 15% drawdown.
  • Diversified: return for the drawdown, with a penalty for strategies that lose at the same time; stops at 20%.
  • Balanced: balances return for the drawdown with total return; stops at 25%.
  • Smooth-Equity: the steadiest returns (highest Sharpe ratio, return per unit of ups and downs); stops at 20%.
  • Aggressive: the highest total return; stops at 50%.

Deploy one

  1. Select the card you want.
  2. Click Deploy … Portfolio under the cards, for example Deploy Smooth-Equity Portfolio. The button turns to Deployed to Overview and the card shows LIVE.

The six variants; Smooth-Equity is selected and Deploy Smooth-Equity Portfolio is under the cards

The live portfolio is the one the Overview and Analysis pages report on. Deploying only changes which portfolio they show; nothing is traded.

Check how each one holds up

Further down, COMPARE · HOW EACH VARIANT HOLDS UP lists all six in one table. Besides the figures on the cards it shows, for each portfolio:

  • MC median and MC worst 5% DD: the median final return, and the max drawdown in the worst 5% of Monte Carlo paths (the portfolio's own history reshuffled into thousands of possible paths).
  • Breach odds: the share of those paths that go past your max drawdown.
  • Held out: how much of its return the portfolio kept on the held-out data, when you ran with Validate on holdout (70% or more held up; under 30% did not).

The comparison table: monthly return, max drawdown, return/drawdown and the Monte Carlo columns for each variant

Click a row to select that portfolio. Hover the i next to a column for its full meaning.

Good to know

  • After each run, the first portfolio (AI or Fallback) goes live by itself. Deploy another one if you prefer it.
  • A card that says No portfolio met your limits found no mix inside your goals. Loosen them on Goals and run again.
  • The variants stay until your next run, so you can come back and deploy a different one without running again.
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